Introduction

• General
  • What is risk?
  • 6 questions to define the project
  • The key areas of concern
  • What should risk analysis provide?
  • 3 Ways to view risk management
  • General comments on risk assessment
  • Accountability
  • General comments on planning
  • What are the core process steps to assess a risk?
  • Simple process outline
  • What are the basic overall process steps?
  • Stakeholders
  • Success measures
  • Why carry out Risk Assessment?
• Project Life Cycle
  • Project Life Cycle
  • Project Life Cycle - concept
  • Project Life Cycle - plan
  • Project Life Cycle - execute
  • Project Life Cycle - termination
  • Project Life Cycle - general points

• Terminology
  • Clarification of terms
  • Basic statistical terms

The Risk Management process

• General
• Define
  • Define the project
  • Define the project management process
• Identify the risks and responses
• Organise - prioritise risks and responses
• Ownership - risks, responsibilities and contractors
• Estimation
  • Size the risks
  • Simple estimating of risk
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Simple estimating of risk - more detail
  • Simple estimation problems
  • Obtaining the estimates
  • Breakdown of variables
• Evaluation
  • Estimates
  • Independent correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Positive correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Negative correlation
  • Conditional correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Cumulative probability graph 2
• Planning
  • Ways to modify plans
  • Plans and strategies
  • Types of plans
  • Dependencies - 4 basic types
  • Dependencies - 4 basic types
    part 2
  • Manage - plans and strategies

Risk issues

• General
  • Identify risk issues
  • Other issues
  • The contractor
  • Other aspects
  • Risk combination
• Assessment of risk
  • Common methods of assessing risk
  • Common methods of assessing risk 2
  • Issue based
  • Checklists
  • Qualitative method
  • Quantitative method
  • Quantitative method part 2
  • Quantitative method part 3
  • Quantitative method part 4

Modelling

• Cost models
  • Simple cost model
  • Cost model
  • Cost model part 2
• Monte Carlo model
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Monte Carlo simulation 2
  • Monte Carlo simulation - output
  • Monte Carlo distribution
  • Monte Carlo risk distribution
  • How do we carry out the simulations?
  • Probability density function - PDF
  • PDF - Simplified version

Events

• Uncertain
  • Uncertain events
  • Uncertain events part 2
  • Uncertain events part 3
  • Uncertain events part 4
• Corellated
  • Risk of exceeding the target cost
  • Correlated events
  • Correlated events part 2
  • Correlated events part 3
• 3 point model
  • 2 pathways
  • Simple probability estimation
  • Collecting task information
  • Documentation
  • Task probability
  • Monte Carlo risk distribution
  • Multiple variables

Networks and branching

• Network
  • Simple network
  • Simple network - no lag
  • Simple network - with lag
• Branching
  • Simple branching
  • Complex branching
  • Complex branching part 2
  • Multiple branching
  • Multiple branching part 2
  • Multiple probability branching
  • Multiple probability branching
    part 2
  • Nodes and branching networks
  • Branching networks
• Production example
  • Production example
  • Production example part 2
  • Risk of exceeding target duration

Other

• Business forecast
  • Business forecast
  • Business schedule risk
  • Business revenue and profit risk
  • Business revenue and profit risk 2
  • Business profit simulation
• Other areas to consider when reviewing risk
• Markov chain
• General points to consider
• Task information
  • Risk assessment of a task
  • Risk assessment of a task part 2
• Human relations
  • Negatives
  • Benefits

What are the basic overall process steps?

When dealing with risks within a project there needs to be a plan of action or mechanism to manage its process.

The basic steps would be:

1. Identify the stakeholders involved.
2. Identify success criteria and how to measure them.
3. Prepare a plan. The process will use an initial summary plan to get the process underway. This may be modified to a ‘reference plan’ and will end up as the base plan prior to project implementation. See comments on plan definitions [see types of plans].
4. Identify risks
5. Assess the risks (likelihood and impact)
6. Agree responsibilities
7. Carry out risk management planning
8. Aggregate analysis
9. Monitor and review. This is as part of the normal project management [see ‘The Complete Project Management package’] and [see 'The Complete Project Management plus PRINCE2'] process.