Risk management - Uncertain events part 2

Uncertain events part 2

We could start from point ‘A’ and want to get to ‘D’ and wish to know the range of costs.
The pathway could take us through ‘B’ and ‘C’.

We have to estimate the LIKELIHOOD of each pathway.
In the above case we might assume there is a 70% likelihood of pathway ‘B’ happening and a 30% likelihood of pathway ‘C’ happening.

For each of these pathways there may be different costs and durations associated with them.
These are also known as ‘branching points’.

This could be represented graphically [see Uncertain events part 3].

Risk management - Uncertain events part 2

Uncertain events part 2

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