Introduction
The Risk Management process
Risk issues
Modelling
Events
Networks and branching
Other
The network of tasks is starting to get a little more complex.
For each of the ‘repair’ and ‘test’ tasks we have entered 3 point estimates. As it will be the same company that will carry out the repairs we will need to set up a ‘correlation’ between each of the ‘repair’ tasks. In addition, each of the Tasks A, B, C and D will be correlated (if the work is carried out by the same team) as will the ‘test’ tasks.
At the end of each task the project team decide that there is a fairly strong chance that some repair work will be needed. They assess the possibility of repair at 25%. This is a reasonably high value as the work is novel and little experience exists on this production.
If the iteration of this model is carried we might very well see a graph of RISK OF EXCEEDING TARGET DURATION vs TOTAL DURATION [see production example part 2].
other areas of interest in the series
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